SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PREDICTION IN NORTH SUMATERA PROVINCE

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Desi Novita Sasmida Karmila Surya Dharma

Abstract

The need for soybean consumption nationally continues to increase. Soybean consumption needs are still greater than production capacity, so that soybean self-sufficiency has not been reached. The purpose of this study is to project the amount of soybean production and consumption and to see the factors that influence soybean production in North Sumatra Province. The data used are secondary data with time series data during the period 1990 - 2017. The analytical method used is the double exponential smoothing method of 1 parameter Brown and multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that the growth rate of soybean production in the next 5 years is predicted to increase by 8.68% per year. In 2022 it is estimated that soybean production in North Sumatra Province will reach 12,774.33 tons. Meanwhile, soybean consumption growth is expected to decrease by -0.82% per year. Soybean consumption is expected to reach 63,876.83 tons in 2022. The factor influencing increased production is soybean harvested area. Meanwhile, soybean prices at producer level and soybean seed prices do not affect soybean production.

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How to Cite
Novita, D., Karmila, S., & Dharma, S. (2020). SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PREDICTION IN NORTH SUMATERA PROVINCE. SOSIAL DAN EKONOMI PERTANIAN, 14(1), 49 - 58. Retrieved from https://jurnalfp.uisu.ac.id/index.php/sep/article/view/56
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